Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Positional Power Rankings

This is just the pilot for this segment, but every Tuesday I'm going to rate the top three players at a position in the NBA. Why do this? Because I find it amusing and to get the readers (that's you!) to tell me that I'm stupid in the comments (or be constructive, your choice). Scott Carefoot at The Basketball Jones blog already does these, so big shoutout to him.

Since these are season (and almost playoff) ending rankings, Players need to have played 41 or more games, and I'm going with Hoopdata's judgement on official position for those tweeners.

Starting with Point Guards

1. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets



2010-11 Traditional Stats:
15.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 9.8 APG, 2.4 SPG, 0.1 BPG, .463 FG%, .388 3PT%, .878 FT%

2010-11 Advanced Stats: .577 TS%, .069 TRR%, 61.34 AR, 23.70 PER, 21.07 USG%

So this clearly makes me a terrible Bulls fan, but Chris Paul is still the game's premier Point Guard. He's not the same type of scorer, but he scores efficiently, gets everyone involved, and plays lock-down defense.

2. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls



2010-11 traditional stats: 25.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 7.7 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.6 BPG, .445 FG%, .332 3PT%, .858 FT%

2010-11 Advanced Stats: .550 TS%, .064 TRR%, 29.40 AR, 23.60 PER, 32.16 USG%

Derrick was third in the NBA in usage rate, so I cut his shooting efficiency some slack. That doesn't excuse his poor defense and the fact that his passing needs more work. He's one of the greatest athletes in the game today, and if his work ethic is anything like what we hear about, he'll keep getting better.

3. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder



2010-11 Traditional Stats: 21.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 8.2 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG, .442 FG%, .330 3PT%, .842 FT%

2010-11 Advanced Stats: .538 TS%, .078 TRR%, 33.78 AR, 23.60 PER, 31.53 USG%

Westbrook took a lot of criticism at various points thought the playoffs, but I'm still amazed at how similar he seems to his young counterpart Derrick Rose. Rose is probably a better athlete and scorer, but Westbrook plays better D and rebounds a bit better. Both are gifted and have room to grow, and it'll be fun to watch them develop over the coming seasons.

The Lone Wolves

The idea of the lone wolf is admittedly something of a cliche, but its an interesting phenomenon in the sport of basketball. Unlike football, where it takes almost an entire team to do almost anything positive on the field, or baseball, where rotations and batting orders make it difficult to isolate a superstar, a basketball team can simply sit back and allow a superstar to try to win the game on his own.

The way we view these players often depends on the media narrative. The first example of this is Wilt Chamberlain. Much of Chamberlain's career overlapped with that of another great center, Bill Russell. Chamberlain was a dynamic force. A 7'1 center in the 1960s with good athleticism and skills. Russell was 6'9 and more noted for his defense and rebounding. There's already a flaw in that logic, as Chamberlain slightly out-rebounded Russell over the course of their careers. But more than anything, Russell was given credit for being a winner. His teams won 11 titles compared to Chamberlain teams winning just two. This has always been an unfair knock on Wilt's career. Wilt won his first title in 1967 with the Philadelphia 76ers. The difference between that team and his past teams was that he had some help in the form of second year player Billy Cunningham. This was the first 'difference making' player that Wilt had played with. Russell won his first title as a rookie with future hall of famers Bob Cousy, Bill Sharman, and Tommy Heinson. This core was also joined by future hall of famers Sam Jones, KC Jones, and John Havlicek thought their title runs. Basically Russell, while still a great player, is given too much credit for being part of a great collective while Chamberlain is judged too harshly because he had to do it alone for most of his career.

This idea doesn't really go away in future generations. Michael Jordan, now considered a great champion, was knocked for being too dominant of the ball and it was even said that the great scorer would never win a NBA title while leading the league in scoring. It took Jordan until his sixth full season to win his first championship. He did so with the help of all-time great Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant. Jordan and Chamberlain might well be the greatest players of all time, but they couldn't do it alone.

This brings me to LeBron James. LeBron is hated by many for leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers to join stars Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. LeBron spent seven season in Cleveland surrounded by nothing but role players and still got them to the finals once and led them to 66 and 61 wins the past two seasons. It had become clear that the front office wasn't going to be able to acquire any real help, so he had no choice but to pass up more money (players can make more money by re-signing with their current team when they hit free agency) and try to win a NBA title. In reality, he's done nothing different than the lone wolves before him, except instead of the help coming to him, he had to go to the help.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Welcome To Post Moves

My name is Matt Zakrowski. You may know me from my baseball writing that I did at Light Sabermetrics, Pale Hose Pariah, and RotoHardball. If you know my work, you will also know that my approach was heavily rooted in sabermetrics, or advanced baseball statistics. You probably also wonder why I'm making the switch to not only basketball writing, but into less number heavy work. There's a number of factors involved in me making this leap.
One is the combination of factors that re-awoke my love of hoops. The 2010 free agency sweepstakes, and the outside chance of the Bulls landing a big time free agent definitely caught my attention, but the aftermath left me resigned to the idea that the Bulls would be stuck in NBA hell fro the foreseeable future. Still, I was intrigued by the new NBA landscape, and figured my Bulls were due for some fun this season.
Then the Bulls got good. Derrick Rose became a legitimate superstar, Luol Deng put it together on both ends of the floor, and a number of reserves played their role on the way to 62 wins.
It wasn't just about the Bulls, of course. Oklahoma City progressed faster than expected and became one of the most fun teams to watch in the game. Miami and it's big three had a level of ups and downs that got way too much coverage, but was also fascinating. It got even better in the playoffs, where Dallas star Dirk Nowitzki reminded us all how great he has been, and how little we've appreciated him. The Thunder's struggles and the rumors and speculation about Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant's chemistry was a bit much, but was also compelling.
So where does this leave us? The league is heading towards an almost certain work stoppage next season, on the heels of record TV ratings, seemingly trying to kill the momentum they have built in the past year. The Miami Heat are one win away from dispatching the Bulls and facing off against Dirk and the Mavericks in the finals. As for this blog? Well, I'm here to give you a balance of compelling thoughts and smart analysis with a hint of snark.